Election Day Surprises: How to Avoid Chaos in Your Business
A version of this post was published in my weekly email for marketers.
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The dust is settling after this election, and if there’s one word to describe what many people are feeling, it’s shell-shocked. Whether that’s from fear or relief, there seems to be a pause post-election. A “What just happened?” moment.
The final results and the path that brought us here have been full of twists, turns and other shenanigans—not least of which were the wildly varying polls leading right up to election day.
No matter who you supported in this election, there are key lessons that go far beyond politics and speak directly to the importance of market research and reliable data.
Lesson 1: The Reliability of Data Matters More Than Ever
One of the most striking elements of this election cycle was the sheer inconsistency in polling data. We saw respected pollsters deliver diametrically opposite results on the same states and demographics. For businesses, this underscores an essential lesson: the reliability of your data is critical. If your market research isn’t thorough, balanced, or sound in terms of the methods, you risk making decisions based on flawed information.
In my work at Bixa, an award-winning market research firm based right here in Washington, DC, we often emphasize that biased data can lead to skewed elections. I know we talked yesterday about the Des Moines Register pollster who refused to share her crosstabs.
And then all know what happened now…
Biased prediction by the Des Moines Register poll: Harris to win by 3 points
What actually happened in Iowa: Trump won by 14 points (16 points off! eesh!)
Data with bias, and without transparency, can lead to seriously skewed perceptions. This is a case in point, where that Iowa pollster was not even close.
If there’s a bias, it’s crucial to acknowledge it (like the New York Times/Sienna poll did) and also to account for it with statistical adjustments to maintain credibility (which the New York Times/Sienna poll did not do).
Lesson 2: Adapt Your Research Techniques
Why did polling fall short this election? Part of the problem lies in outdated methods, such as phone surveys, that just don’t reach today’s busy, tech-savvy audiences. The reality is people don’t want to spend 30 minutes talking on the phone with someone who has an unknown number. Businesses have to adapt their research techniques to ensure they’re using the most effective tools and channels to reach their audiences.
Online surveys, interviews, video diary studies - with the right incentives and a focus on participation from representative demographics - can offer more accurate, actionable insights.
Businesses, take note: if you’re relying on outdated methods, it’s time to update your approach to meet people where they are.
Lesson 3: Understand Your Customers’ Emotions
Election Day left many people feeling disoriented—on both sides. Sure there some celebrating and some in utter despair. But for many people, there really wasn't a good option here to vote for. So even if someone voted for Trump, they may still be unsure how to feel about the win.
For businesses, this is a crucial reminder. Your customers, much like voters, may experience complex and conflicting emotions about your brand or decisions you make. Outcomes can defy expectations, and these transitions can be jarring.
Thorough research and realistic data help set better expectations and prepare for sudden shifts. It aids in strategic planning, of course, but more than that, it helps manage the emotional impact of unexpected outcomes on your audience.
For businesses, the lesson here is that when you’re equipped with comprehensive data that acknowledges possible outliers and varied sentiments, the “shock” factor diminishes. Your team and strategy can pivot more confidently, making necessary adjustments without losing momentum.
Don’t Guess. Use Data to Drive Decisions.
This election reminded us that, no matter how confident a forecast may appear, nothing is set in stone. For businesses, this means data should inform your decisions—but only if that data is reliable, balanced, and collected using the right recruitment and effective research methods.
Skimping on the quality of your research can lead to blindsided outcomes that shake the foundation of your strategy.
So, as you think about your next business move, take a page from what we’ve learned this election cycle. Invest in reliable, transparent data collection methods and prepare for the unexpected.
And if you want to dive deeper into why polls missed the mark this time and what we can all learn from it, watch my video here:
We’re all on the same side now. So remember: good research is the foundation of sound strategy.
Want to see how market research can help your company?
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